Iceland Volcano: Growing Chance Of A New Eruption On The Sundhnúkar Crater Row

Protective barriers surrounding the Svartsengi area in early November 2024. (Photo: The Icelandic Met Office / Bjarki Kaldalóns Friis)

Hazard assessment has been updated. Adverse weather in the coming days may affect the sensitivity of the monitoring network

ICELAND MET OFFICE

Updated 28 January at 17:30 UTC

• Ground uplift and magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues

• The volume of magma accumulating beneath Svartsengi is approaching the volume drop that occurred during the last event

• The likelihood of a new magma intrusion and potentially an eruption is increasing

• There is a possibility that seismic activity may not be significant prior to the next eruption

• The updated hazard assessment is valid until February 11, barring further developments

Deformation measurements indicate continued ground uplift and magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi. The sequence of events remains similar to those observed before the last eruptions. Modeling calculations show that the volume of magma accumulating beneath Svartsengi is nearing the volume drop that occurred during the last event.

Based on the analysis of previous events, scientists have assessed that once a similar volume of magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi as during previous eruptions, the likelihood of a new magma intrusion and even an eruption increases.

New hazard assessment reflects increased eruption likelihood

The Icelandic Meteorological Office has updated the hazard assessment, which is now valid until February 11, barring any changes. It has been decided to raise the hazard level in zones 4 and 6 from “moderate” (yellow) to “considerable” (orange). This change is based on modeling calculations indicating that the volume of magma accumulating beneath Svartsengi is nearing the volume drop that occurred during the last event.

According to the weather forecast, severe weather is expected to occur in the coming days, beginning January 30.throughout the week. A southern storm accompanied by significant warming, rain, and drizzle is forecasted for southern and western parts of the country later this week and into the weekend. Adverse weather could reduce the sensitivity of the monitoring network, potentially delaying response times to an eruption.

(Image of the updated hazard map)

Little seismic activity could precede the next eruption

Seismic activity in the Sundhnúkar crater row has been increasing gradually since the end of the eruption on December 9, 2024, but overall it remains low. Developments over the past year suggest that seismic activity prior to magma intrusions has been decreasing with each event. Consequently, there is a possibility that seismic activity may not be significant prior to the next eruption.

Seismic activity near the Sundhnúkar Crater Row, displaying the number of earthquakes per day since December 2024.